DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/02 11:44

   Wheat Higher at Midday

   Mixed trade has been the theme today with light position-squaring ahead of 
the upcoming holiday weekend.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:  

   The U.S. stock market indices are lightly lower with the Dow down 15. The 
interest rate products are mostly lower. The dollar index is down 10. Energies 
are higher with crude up 35. Cattle and hogs are higher. Precious metals are 
higher with gold up $6.

GENERAL COMMENTS

CORN 

   Corn trade is steady to 2 lower at midday due to light profit-taking ahead 
of the upcoming holiday weekend. The September USDA Supply and Demand numbers 
will be seen next Friday and we are seeing crop estimates. The Linn Group 
released updated production estimates yesterday; they used a corn yield of 
160.7, which was down 1.4 from a month ago and favoring a lower number versus 
the recent USDA numbers. FC Stone gave a 162.9-bushel-per-acre number, which is 
likely around where we will have the average trade guess heading into the 
report next week. The Informa numbers will be seen tomorrow, which should 
provide direction the rest of the week. The U.S. balance sheet is tight and we 
need to not only plant but grow a big South American crop in order to loosen up 
the world picture. It will likely be hard to break the market for a while even 
if the U.S. crop is as big as, or a little bigger than expected. On the 
December chart, a move above the $4.50 level would likely promote additional 
chart buying, but we seem to have trouble moving higher even though we have 
been close to this level for a while. Support is down at $4.33 which is the 
10-day. There were net cancellations of 28,500 tons of old crop corn on the 
export report his morning, but new crop sales were big at 1.686 million 
bushels. 

SOYBEANS 

   Soybean trade is 1 to 3 lower at midday, meal is steady, and oil is down 10 
to 20 points. On the November chart, support is just below the current market 
$9.99 which is the 40-day. Resistance is up at the 20-day at $10.17. The Linn 
Group released its updated bean production estimate yesterday at 43.6 bushels 
per acre. The FC stone estimate was at 43.5 bushels per acre. We will continue 
to watch for private yield numbers this week which should direct trade, but the 
market appears to be in sideways mode. The export sales came in at 900 tons of 
old crop and 613,000 tons of new crop; combined, they were below expectations. 
Meal sales were higher than expected at 156,000 tons of old crop and new crop 
sales were 222,400 tons. Oil sales were low at 7,900 tons of old crop and 4,400 
tons of new crop.

WHEAT 

   Wheat trade is 6 to 12 higher at midday due to continued global production 
concerns. Earlier this week, the Russian production estimate came in at 29.9 
million tons versus 41.2 million tons a year ago. This war higher than 
expected, but Russia announced this morning that it may not lift the export ban 
until after harvest is completed next year. The recent dry conditions in Russia 
have also caused a slow down in winter wheat planting there with only 1 million 
hectares planted versus 3.9 million at this time a year ago. It is still early 
in the planting season though. The export sales were reported at 1.024 million 
tons which was just above the high side of expectations. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Commodity Trading Advisor. 


(AG)

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