DTN Closing Cotton Commentary          07/29 15:03

   Cotton Closes Higher Thursday

   Renewed commercial buying pushed the market higher Thursday, with additional 
support tied to the continued weakness of the U.S. dollar index.  

By Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst

   A day after indicating the new-crop fundamentals may be growing more 
bearish, commercial traders joined forces with their noncommercial brethren to 
push the market higher. The day's activity had the December contract in 
position to test price resistance near 77.60 Friday, and if that can be 
breached a possible extended rally to its contract high of 79.90. 

   Money coming into the market doesn't appear to be the problem. With the U.S. 
dollar index down 0.600 throughout the course of Thursday's session while the 
DJIA struggles to find direction, commodities in general seem inclined to 
rally. But it is the other side, the commercial side, of the market where 
pressure could begin to build. As Wednesday's session indicated with its 
weakening inverse in the December to March futures spread, the cotton market is 
nearing the point where it quits focusing on the old-crop tight supply 
situation and begins to focus on the more bearish new-crop outlook. When that 
occurs, it should put increased pressure on the December contract. 


(KM)

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