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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/19 11:09

   Grains Trending Higher at Midday

   The mixed trade at midday with soybeans and spring wheat leading.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments



   The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow 120 higher. The dollar index is 
20 points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are firmer with 
crude up $0.30. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are weaker with gold 
down $11.


   Corn is flat to 1 cent higher with trade still struggling to extend the 
upper end of the range and light two-sided action today. Weather remains a 
short-term non-issue with warm temps and some wet weather in areas to move 
along late-crop development and maturity before trending drier towards October 
with some of the storms slowing early harvest in the West. Corn basis is 
expected to continue to see pressure with harvest underway in more areas, and 
more coming soon. Ethanol futures are slightly lower with improved margins 
holding on. Weekly export sales were strong at 1.46 million metric tons. On the 
December contract support is at the 20-day at 3.65 with the upper Bollinger 
band above trade at 3.77. 


   Soybean trade is 3 to 5 cents higher with a new bullish catalyst needed to 
move trade through $9.00 nearby. Meal is $0.50 to $1.50 higher and oil is 10 to 
20 points lower. Crush margins remain good, but the bull argument needs a 
positive export story with weekly export sales very strong with the China 
buying at 1.73 million metric tons of soybeans, 93,700 metric tons of old meal, 
342,100 of new meal, and 20,600 of oil combined. Economically, U.S. export 
competitiveness is improving which may be just as important as trade 
negotiations to get some business done. Bean basis remains flat in the 
interior. South American currencies remain weak as planting season draws closer 
with dry weather to start, potentially delaying things early on. On the 
November chart we near support at the 100-day at $8.86 and the upper Bollinger 
Band at 8.98, and the 200-day at 9.15 as resistance. 


   Wheat trade is 2 cents lower to 8 cents higher with Minneapolis trade 
leading on quality concerns. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is 77 cents, down 7 
cents from the high this week. The corn/HRW spread is hanging around the 35-40 
cent area. So Kansas City wheat is competitive on the world market but we need 
to see the business and more buyers to move the board out away from our lows 
with feed competitiveness still in place for the southern plains. The weekly 
export sales were disappointing at 286,600 metric tons. The December Kansas 
City chart support is at the 20-day at $3.99 1/2, with resistance at the upper 
Bollinger Band at 4.13 which we have tested today.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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